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HomeCyclingKnowledge Exhibits Low Likelihood of Cavendish Breaking Tour Stage Win File

Knowledge Exhibits Low Likelihood of Cavendish Breaking Tour Stage Win File

The 2024 Tour de France has the potential of setting historical past. Mark Cavendish might take the Tour stage win file subsequent 12 months, breaking the joint whole held by himself and Eddy Merckx – Thirty-four wins. However, in response to information, that likelihood is nil.

The Tour win file holders Mark Cavendish and Eddy Merckx

The World’s greatest ever bicycle owner of all time, Eddy Merckx, holds many biking data, together with the variety of stage victories within the Tour de France. The now 78 year-old Belgian took 34 Tour stage victories in his lengthy profession. He shares the file with Mark Cavendish. Within the 2024 French Grand Tour, the British sprinter is seeking to take the file, however he faces way more competitors than Merckx did in his time. Again then, biking was huge in only some European nations, today riders come from everywhere in the world.

Cavendish introduced the 2023 Tour de France can be his final

Final season, Cavendish needed to make another try to interrupt Merckx’s file and in the course of the 2023 Giro d’Italia Cavendish introduced that this might be his final season. This Tour de France can be his stage win ‘final likelihood saloon’. In Bordeaux he was very shut, however Jasper Philipsen sped previous him within the final metres. Confidence in him breaking the file grew daily, however 24 hours after that second place, ‘Cav’ was sat on the asphalt. A damaged collarbone and the top of his Tour desires. Inside a day of his Tour abandonment, his Astana Qazaqstan crew provided an answer and satisfied him to proceed.

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The crash that ended the dream

‘The Manx Missile’ has a particularly advanced scenario forward of him. Cavendish is not any ‘spring rooster’. Initially of the 2024 Tour, the British rider will probably be 39 years and 39 days outdated. Within the historical past of the Tour de France, just one rider has managed to win a stage older than Cavendish. If we return 60 years, to 1963: The late Pino Cerami gained the ninth stage from Bordeaux to Pau that 12 months. The Belgian was 41 years and 64 days outdated on the time. This makes him the oldest stage winner ever.

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Pino Cerami – The oldest Tour stage winner at 41 years and 64 days

After him follows Raymond Poulidor, who was 38 years and 91 days outdated when he gained his stage on Pla d’Adet in 1974. Cavendish would place himself between them together with his file breaking stage victory. As a result of there has solely been one stage winner older than Cavendish, the possibility of a victory is slim. In your entire Tour historical past, 2331 levels have been held. That’s 100%. So one stage was gained by somebody older than Cavendish, so that provides Cavendish a 0.04% likelihood of success.

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Equal stage winner on 34 – Eddy Merckx

However judging him solely on his age can be too simple, so we should additionally evaluate the successful share of the opposite 4 riders with probably the most victories within the Tour de France. Along with Merckx and Cavendish, each on 34 victories, these are additionally the Frenchman Bernard Hinault on 28, André Leduqc with 25 and André Darrigade on 22. Merckx took 183 levels for his 34 wins, the Brit 210 levels and the Frenchmen 184, 213 and 317 levels. Merckx gained one in additional than 5 levels, Cavendish one in additional than six, similar to Hinault. Leduqc and Darrigade gained one stage in 9 and fourteen respectively.

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Jasper Philipsen acquired the higher of Cavendish on Tour’23 stage 7

In that respect, Cavendish’s common is excellent, however these different 4 riders should not his opponents, these would be the sprinters of right this moment. If we have a look at the highest sprinters who, extra probably, will probably be contesting this 12 months’s Tour sprints; they’re Jasper Philipsen, Dylan Groenewegen, Tim Merlier, Mads Pedersen and Fabio Jakobsen. None of these guys come near Cavendish’s numbers. Merlier is closest with one win in 9 levels, Philipsen in additional than twelve. In that regard, there’s hope for Cav. Logically, as a result of there has solely been one sprinter with the next common: Mario Cipollini. He gained twelve of his seventy Tour levels, good for a mean of 1 victory out of 5.33 levels. Even Merckx on 5.38, can’t match that.

‘Tremendous Mario’ has the most effective Tour/win ratio

Statistically talking, it’s a one hell of a job for Cavendish at his age to win another stage of the Tour de France in 2024 and make himself the solo file holder of all time stage wins. However nothing is unattainable and his complete crew will probably be working for that one win.

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All of Astana will probably be working for that one stage win within the Tour

# An enormous thanks to WielerFlits for the inspiration and details. #

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